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However, some media industry observers have questioned whether trading activity can reliably stand in for broader public opinion. There are also concerns among critics over the growing links between news organizations and prediction platforms. 

At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives. 

However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026. 

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One exception, he notes, could be the Seminole Tribe of Florida and their proposed Hard Rock Resort Casino in Tomakomai, Hokkaido.

“They are currently aggressively growing the Hard Rock Casino brand, with developments under way in Las Vegas, New York City, Greece, Puerto Rico and Jamaica. They will put forth an attractive development proposal, and it appears that they now have the support of local government,” Klebanow notes.

As highlighted by Klebanow, Japan’s fragmented approach to gambling regulation may impact the development of Japan’s IR gambling industry, and Suzanne Perilloux Leckert, co-founding partner of Convergence Strategy Group somewhat agrees.

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“Oftentimes when you see governments increasing taxes, banning iGaming, it’s mainly because of illegal operators because they don’t comply,” he declares. “An illegal operator may not provide age verification, responsible gambling tools, secure treatment of player funds, or an effective complaints mechanism.

“So illegal operators undermine licensed businesses that invest in compliance, contribute to taxes and operate under regulatory oversight. We are where we are because of illegal operators. Oftentimes, licensed operators have licence conditions that they need to abide with.”

Kesitilwe highlights a recent study by Gaming Compliance International that estimated around 77% of Africa’s gambling market is offshore.