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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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Notably, ethics concerns may have played a critical factor in the rejection of the bill. Lawmakers from both sides did not feel that an updated version of the text released on Sunday went far enough in addressing concerns related to senior officials maintaining or endorsing crypto business ties. However, a group of Republicans claimed they made a series of concessions when US President Donald Trump agreed to modifications on Sunday night that contained stronger ethics measures, the Associated Press reported. The 11th hour concessions were not enough to appease potential swing voters among Senate Democrats.
“This legislation failed squarely because Republicans refuse to say no to the president,” Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego said in a statement. “It takes 60 votes to pass a bill, and instead of spending their time twisting themselves into knots to appease President Trump, Republicans should have worked more closely with Senate Democrats to craft a bill that could pass with strong ethics provisions.”
Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, the leading negotiator for Republicans, berated her Democratic colleagues in a statement, saying they “played games” and “were never truly serious about protecting consumers”.
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NSW government figures classify poker machines as the most harmful gambling format in the state, yet clubs continue to operate approximately 65,000 poker machines, benefiting substantially from tax rebates through the scheme.
Green MP Cate Faehrmann has criticised the arrangement, highlighting a conflict of interest where clubs reduce their tax liabilities while simultaneously cultivating community goodwill.
She called the proposed changes “tinkering around the edges”. She questioned whether ClubGRANTS genuinely supports community projects, or functions as an indirect subsidy that lessens scrutiny of gaming revenue.
